Estimate your age of death


Where do these estimates come from?

The estimates above are based on the September 2023 release of the Human Mortality Database, using the most recent available year for each country.

They are period measures, meaning they estimate what will happen in the future based on what's happening today.

For example, suppose you are 30 years old today, and the latest data for your country is from 2020. To estimate your chance of death this year, we would divide how many 30-year-olds died in 2020 by the number alive at the start of the year. We'd do the same for 31-year-olds, 32-year-olds, and so on, and in that way build up a picture of what your chance of death looks like at each age.

In the above analysis, each data point is the probability that you survive to a given age then die that year.

What are the limitations of these estimates?

There's a bunch things to keep in mind:

  • Unfortunately, only wealthy countries report mortality data broken down to this level of detail, so for much of the world this tool cannot provide helpful estimates

  • For many countries, the reporting year was during the Covid-19 pandemic, which could have affected the estimates

  • The estimates are based on the assumption that the future will be like the past. If there are major changes in the future, like a global catastrophe or a medical breakthrough, then the estimates will be off.

  • The estimates are for your entire cohort — people your age and sex in your country. You know things about your personal health, lifestyle, and family history that these statistics can't cover, and all these factors could impact your life expectancy.

  • The estimates give you an idea of how long you might life, but don't answer what your quality of life will be across that span. You can investigate healthy life expectancy in your country to get a sense of that.

Read more